From Forecasting to World Modeling: Can Temporal Foundation Models Recover Causal Response?

arXiv:2611.15009v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: A model that forecasts sales accurately can still mislead a retailer about how sales respond to a price change. We evaluate released tabular and time-series foundation models, as well as a foundation model pretrained specifically to estimate causal effects. We report three findings. First, forecast accuracy does not indicate the accuracy of the predicted effect of price, both on simulated data in which the true effect is known and on real retail sales records. Second, for the tabular foundation models, additional context improves forecasts but not the predicted effect of price. Third, instrumental variables, the standard remedy in econometrics, reduce this error only when supplied in a specific form and increase it for every model under confounding when supplied as raw instruments.