Global Solar Siting from Geospatial Embeddings

arXiv:2611.08831v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Global solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is rapidly growing, helping decrease our emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. However, optimally siting a solar plant remains challenging, requiring anticipation of geographical, urban, and infrastructure needs. Current methods rely on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) using hand-picked geophysical layers and solar-resource products, however these strategies are not geographically transferable and do not capture the practical requirements of solar sites. We use geospatial embeddings, dense vectors representing geophysical properties of a location, to analyse 38,591 existing solar sites and the land they were built on to learn the latent solar suitability signal. We assess a set of linear and non-linear models and select a soft-voting ensemble of a random forest and a multilayer perceptron (RF+MLP ensemble), chosen for accuracy and large scale deployability. Validated against future installations in thirteen countries, the ensemble separates existing solar sites from random land with a median ROC-AUC of 0.90. Compared with published MCDA strategies, the ensemble increases ROC-AUC by 0.06-0.30 in every country. The ranking also concentrates real deployment: the most-suitable 20% of land holds 84% of estimated generation (annual energy yield) and 67% of installed capacity (potential power output). After applying standard siting constraints, 5.6% of global land (9.8% if cropland is permitted) remains highly suited to solar. The global 10 m resolution solar suitability dataset and code can be found here: https://github.com/Abdullahr29/Global-Solar-Siting.