Information, Uncertainty, and Conditional Regime Inference

[Submitted on 12 Nov 2026]

View a PDF of the paper titled Stochastic Kernel Mode Decomposition: Information, Uncertainty, and Conditional Regime Inference, by Boumediene Hamzi and 1 other authors

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Abstract:When do mode energies preserve regime information as measurement quality changes? Stochastic Kernel Mode Decomposition (sKMD) fits joint regime laws on signed KMD mode coordinates and transfers the reference mode posterior to regime probabilities and conditional reconstructions. For centered Gaussian regimes with independently varying known noise variances, fixed coordinate energies retain the full regime posterior precisely when all classes share their cross-covariances and class variances can differ only at isolated vertices of the covariance graph. We extend the characterization to nonzero means and show that freely varying correlated noise forces a fixed linear log-odds decoder to retain the full quadratic feature span even for two distinct centered regimes. At fixed quality, a three-regime example has no sufficient two-energy basis. Its smallest Bayes log-loss gap over bases of condition number at most $\kappa$ has sharp order $\kappa^{-1}$. Exact Bayes energy posteriors supply numerical gap estimates for specified bases. Additional bounds relate feature compression, independently learned mode spans and sensor-noise error to log loss. Two controlled experiments with 64 independent panels each show that signed information can improve prediction over energy summaries, while integration gives small gains over strong signed controls and depends on how the competing point rule is calibrated and how accurately observation noise is measured.