Unlike the pandemic-driven drop in 2020, this wasn’t driven by a widespread decrease in energy demand. Demand did increase, but additions of electric vehicles and solar and wind generation covered almost 70 percent of the growth. Electric vehicles can account for only about 20 percent of that consequential decline in oil emissions, meaning the bulk is due to high prices.
One simple way to break down emissions is to connect it to economic output. Given a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), energy use per unit GDP, and carbon emissions per unit energy, you can calculate total carbon emissions. GDP might go up, but if that’s due to less energy-intensive industries or a cleaner energy system, carbon emissions might not rise with it.
Between 2019 and 2025, 59 countries cut their emissions despite economic growth, even as global emissions increased by 0.8 percent per year. The researchers estimated that, had the economic growth not been accompanied by the growth of electric vehicles and solar and wind generation, the increase would have been much higher, at 1.9 percent per year.
Close, but not there yet
Given the International Monetary Fund’s projection for GDP through 2028, the researchers extrapolated these trends forward as well. From that, we would expect global fossil fuel emissions to continue increasing. That includes the present year—without the shock to oil prices, we would be seeing emissions increase in 2026 as well.
Credit:
Le Quéré, et al./Nature Climate Change
Total annual fossil CO2 emissions (top left), and then coal (top right), oil (bottom left), and natural gas (bottom right) emissions. Extrapolated trends in gray, yellow, and blue, with the actual 2026 value represented by a red dot.
Credit:
Le Quéré, et al./Nature Climate Change
So while we could be close to peak emissions, we’re probably not there yet. The growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy is offsetting most of the growth of emissions, but not all of it. That would take just a bit more juice.
The researchers write, “If further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported through time, a sustained peak and decline in global CO2 emissions could be a few years away.”
Nature Climate Change, 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02821-8 (About DOIs).
